2018 … An Industry Working Group will also be established to address some of the main challenges associated with this policy through close cooperation with stakeholders. [footnote 4] Over the medium term, productivity growth is expected to increase to 0.9% in 2020, and then to 1.2% in 2023. Devolved administrations will benefit from Barnett consequentials. This year, the theme is “Rethinking Market Discipline”. 1 General government net borrowing on a Maastricht basis. Reforming Stamp taxes on shares consideration rules – The government will consult on aligning the consideration rules of Stamp Duty and Stamp Duty Reserve Tax and introducing a general market value rule for transfers between connected persons. Andrew Wishart, a UK economist at Capital Economics, said with borrowing in March, April and June down 25% on the previous year at £16.8bn, the Treasury was on … ↩, ‘The Government Response to the Naylor Review’, Department for Health & Social Care, January 2018. The OBR forecasts that global growth will be 3.7% in 2018 and in 2019, 0.2 percentage points lower in both years than at Spring Statement 2018. Science and innovation at the heart of government – To stimulate the use of cutting-edge science and innovation in government, the Budget announces a new £50 million per year fund designed to address the most pressing challenges in areas such as public health and cyber security. The indexation of direct taxes, benefits, public sector pensions and the State Pension have all moved from RPI to CPI. It does not apply to index-linked gilts issued by the Debt Management Office. Promoting greater choice of wedding venues – England and Wales have outdated laws about how and where couples can marry. Improving government messaging to regulators – The government will review the process of setting future ‘Strategic Policy Statements’ to Ofgem, Ofcom and Ofwat, to determine how best to set clear strategic direction for regulators, consistent with cross-sectoral government priorities. The target is being increased by £3.0 billion to £9.0 billion, within a range of £6.0 billion to £12.0 billion. The Budget allocates £100 million for the first phase of the National Retraining Scheme (NRS). The Budget also sets out the path of day-to-day spending by departments in aggregate for years beyond the current Spending Review period. Should wider policies not deliver the government’s waste ambitions in the future, it will consider the introduction of a tax on the incineration of waste, in conjunction with landfill tax, taking account of the possible impacts on local authorities. Boosting pensions for the self-employed – This winter, DWP will publish a paper setting out the government’s approach to increasing pension participation and savings persistency among the self-employed. The new rules will have effect on and after 1 October 2019 and the government is publishing secondary legislation alongside the Budget to implement this change. Print . Local roads – The government will allocate £420 million to local authorities in 2018‑19 to tackle potholes, repair damaged roads, and invest in keeping bridges open and safe. ↩, HM Treasury CDEL excluding Network Rail capital spending, which is switching into DEL from 2019-20. The government will now introduce a UK digital services tax. The government, led by the Department for Exiting the European Union (DExEU), continues to refine these plans ahead of March 2019 and has published a series of notices so that businesses and citizens are prepared. There are two remaining measures in the draft NICs Bill published on 5 December 2016: reforms to the NICs treatment of termination payments and income from sporting testimonials. The government uses measures of inflation to uprate some taxes and benefits; to determine changes in rail fares, reflecting industry costs; to uprate the rate of interest on student loans; when setting the inflation target for the Bank of England; and as the reference rate for government bonds linked to inflation. To help protect people from fraudsters, the government is publishing a response to its consultation alongside the Budget and will shortly be implementing legislation to make pensions cold calling illegal. The OBR’s forecast of average hours has been revised down, which partly offsets this effect. Shared and integrated education and shared housing in Northern Ireland – The government will move forward with projects worth £300 million subject to value for money considerations, as part of the government’s commitment in the Fresh Start Agreement to provide up to £500 million to increase the provision of shared and integrated education and shared housing in Northern Ireland. Supporting exports – To provide additional fixed rate finance to overseas buyers who choose UK goods and services, UK Export Finance (UKEF) will make a one-off increase to their Direct Lending Facility of up to £2 billion over 2020-21 and 2021-22. Short Term Business Visitors (STBVs) – Following a consultation on the tax and administrative treatment of STBVs from overseas branches of UK headquartered companies, the government will widen eligibility for the STBV Pay As You Earn (PAYE) special arrangement and extend its deadlines for reporting and paying tax. This will be legislated for in Finance Bill 2018-19, and a rate of £50.71 per hectolitre will apply from 1 February 2019. Plastics and waste innovation funding – The government is providing £20 million to support measures in this Budget to tackle plactics and boost recycling – £10 million more for plastics R&D, and £10 million to pioneer innovative approaches to boosting recycling and reducing litter, such as smart bins. This includes raising the National Living Wage to £8.21 an hour in April 2019, as well as supporting consumers to make their money go further. £170m in 2020-21 represents additional spending in the current Help to Buy scheme from forestalling. The government is also publishing the methodology underpinning the calculation of the fiscal impact of each policy decision. At the 95th percentile of the distribution, the variability in the year-on-year changes in annual borrowing rises from £2.0 billion at a 10% index-linked share of the debt stock to £7.6 billion at 40%. (3). Vehicle Excise Duty (VED): Uprating – From 1 April 2019 VED rates for cars, vans and motorcycles will increase in line with RPI. ↩, ‘Treasury Bill Issuance and Stock’, UK Debt Management Office, October 2018. Personal Allowance and higher rate threshold – The Budget announces that the government will meet its commitment to raise the PA to £12,500 from April 2019, one year earlier than planned. (43). The Department for Transport (DfT) is exploring opportunities for greater commercialisation of transport assets and ways to realise further value from both new developments and existing land. Compared with Spring Statement, the main changes to the forecast are due to a combination of the following factors: underlying receipts are higher in every year of the forecast. Growth slowed at the start of 2018 to 0.1% in Q1 2018, but increased to 0.4% in Q2 2018. The government continues to make good progress towards growth deals for Ayrshire and the Borderlands, and is working with the Scottish Government to achieve this, alongside local partners in England for the Borderlands. Following the recommendations of the independent Low Pay Commission (LPC), the government will increase the NLW by 4.9% from £7.83 to £8.21 from April 2019. Management capability – The Productivity Leadership Group has shown that business‑led approaches to improving productivity work. [footnote 16]. Details of the sources of all numerical references, including National Statistics, used in this section can be found in ‘Budget 2018 data sources’. The government is confident of getting a good deal, but has a responsibility to plan for all scenarios, including the unlikely event no mutually satisfactory agreement can be reached with the EU. Pay growth (excluding bonuses) is at its joint strongest since 2008 and real wages have risen, as inflation has fallen from its 2017 peak. On 22 March 2018, the European Fiscal Board participated in the 20th Banca d' Italia Workshop on Public Finance, "Fiscal challenges for the Euro area: institutional and policy fixes". Productivity growth has picked up since Spring Statement and is rising at its fastest rate since 2016, but remains below its average prior to the financial crisis. United Kingdom: Economy bounces back in Q3, although momentum will not carry over to Q4 November 12, 2020 Economic activity rebounded in the third quarter, with GDP growing 15.5% on a seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, contrasting the 19.8% contraction logged in … That was the first time it had done so since 2001/02. The OBR forecasts that GDP will grow by 0.5% in Q3 2018 and 0.4% in Q4 2018, and expects annual GDP growth of 1.3% in 2018 and 1.6% in 2019. In 2011, Japan suffered from a natural disaster. Employment was 32.4 million in the three months to August 2018, close to its highest ever level. The Scottish and Welsh Governments’ block grants will be further adjusted, as set out in their respective fiscal frameworks. In the private sector, inflation is used in some wage agreements; to uprate certain pension payments, particularly defined benefit pensions; and in financial markets. There will be no changes to the VAT or APD regimes in Northern Ireland at this time. 2. [footnote 43] The BSR is exploring options to improve incentives and secure appropriate compensation for the taxpayer when providing insurance to the private sector. VAT and higher education – The government will amend VAT law to ensure continuity of VAT treatment for English higher education providers under the Higher Education and Research Act by enabling bodies registered with the Office for Students in the Approved (fee cap) category to exempt supplies of education. [footnote 8] The government also confirms that the Asset Purchase Facility (APF) will remain in place for the financial years 2018-19 and 2019‑20. Alongside the Budget, the government has published an interim response setting out its investment record and progress in the priority areas identified in the NIC’s report. The government still intends to legislate for these reforms, which will take effect from April 2020. Borrowing forecast to … This is the largest ever investment in England’s strategic roads and will enable the government to build on the successes of Roads Investment Strategy 1, such as the A1(M) link to Newcastle, and progress transformative projects like the A66 Trans-Pennine, the Oxford‑Cambridge Expressway, and the Lower Thames Crossing. Table 1.9 sets out the path for TME, public sector current expenditure (PSCE) and public sector gross investment (PSGI) up to 2023-24. The Spending Review next year will settle the funding for costs beyond 2019-20 arising from the valuations. The latest GDP per head estimate for 2018, from ONS, is just 0.8%., which remarkably, at this stage of what should be a full recovery, iis below the already modest average for the period, and the worst figure since 2012. The UK economy is now clearly experiencing one of the worst economic problems in recent history. The updated financing arithmetic for 2018-19 is set out in Table A.1. These thresholds will remain at the same levels in 2020-21 and then increase by CPI. (14), To support the transition to Universal Credit for all self-employed people, the government is also extending the 12-month grace period (the period before the Minimum Income Floor applies) to all gainfully self-employed people; giving claimants time to grow their businesses to a sustainable level. In conducting this review, the government will build on experience and lessons learnt from previous Spending Reviews. £20 million of this will be allocated to the West Midlands. Since export growth exceeded that of imports, net trade contributed positively to GDP growth, adding 0.7 percentage points in 2017. The government will make amendments to the loss relief legislation to ensure that it works as intended and prevents relief for carried-forward losses being claimed in excess of that intended. • The 2017 Budget tax proposals will raise R28 billion in additional revenue in 2017/18. Debt owed to the government – The government will improve its recovery of over £20 billion of overdue debt through new performance management measures and continued central support, which has already collected an extra £472 million over the last 3 years. The government has concluded that a levy on all cups would not at this time be effective in encouraging widespread reuse. Capital gains tax: tackling misuse of Entrepreneurs’ Relief – In addition to the current requirements on share capital and voting rights, from 29 October 2018 shareholders must also be entitled to at least 5% of the distributable profits and net assets of a company to claim the relief. The budget process began when President Donald Trump submitted his budget. Trusts consultation – As announced at Autumn Budget 2017, the government will publish a consultation on the taxation of trusts, to make the taxation of trusts simpler, fairer and more transparent. Details of the sources used in this calculation can be found in ‘Budget 2018 data sources’. Asset sales and loans – HM Treasury will introduce stricter disclosure requirements for asset sales and revised budgetary treatment for financial transactions (e.g. (15). In 2017:UK budget (fiscal) deficit was £46 billion, or 2.3 per cent of GDP (peaked 10.1% in 2009)Public sector net debt was 87% of GDPGovernment debt now stands at £1.8 trillionDebt interest payments last year by the government were £48 billion In 2018, total UK government spending is expected to be £814.0 billion Health care - £150 billionPensions - £165 billion Education - £85 billionDefence - £47 billionGovernment spending forecast to be 41% of UK GDP in 2018 (48% in 2010). The OBR has revised up its assumption for the trend labour market participation rate and revised down its estimate of the equilibrium rate of unemployment, both of which raise the level of potential output. Plans for major improvements for the seawall at Dawlish will be published next summer. The report will set out the UK’s approach to cryptoassets and distributed ledger technologies in financial services, including actions that will allow innovators to thrive and the benefits of these new technologies to be realised while at the same time mitigating the risks that arise from cryptoassets. For instance, switching the remaining uses of RPI to CPI for indirect taxes would come with substantial costs for the Exchequer. [footnote 40] (79). VAT and vouchers – Following consultation, the government will legislate in Finance Bill 2018-19 to implement EU legislation which ensures that the correct amount of VAT is charged on what the customer pays, irrespective of whether payment is with a voucher or other means of payment. In addition, the government is unlocking billions of pounds worth of pension fund investment in growing firms. To support these preparations, the government has already allocated £2.2 billion to departments and devolved administrations. 4 In 2021-22, 2022-23 and 2023-24, the capital funding for this measure has been allocated from within the National Productivity Investment Fund, and is not included in total policy decisions. In 2017, the current account balance narrowed to a deficit of 3.7% of GDP from 5.2% in 2016. The tax would apply to all stationary installations currently participating in the EU ETS from 1 April 2019. This provided additional protections for welfare claimants, including: enhancements to transitional protection for people moving onto Universal Credit; extending existing support for non-parental carers and adopters in tax credits and Universal Credit; and enhanced protections for those currently receiving the Severe Disability Premium to provide additional support as Universal Credit is implemented. The new approvals regime has already been applied to over 60 new contingent liabilities with a total value of £158 billion, with over £1 billion of new liabilities rejected outright and the vast majority approved after significant modification to reduce exposure. To ensure a coherent approach, the government will consult on both of these together in the coming months. To test their potential, the Digital Catapult will run a series of DLT Field Labs, working with businesses, investors, and regulators in a range of areas, including in construction and the management of goods in ports. We welcome registrations from persons with an academic background and an interest in fiscal policy. The debt management objective, as set out in the ‘Debt management report 2018-19’, is: “to minimise, over the long term, the costs of meeting the government’s financing needs, taking into account risk, while ensuring that debt management policy is consistent with the aims of monetary policy.”. This will ensure the relief is robust against identified abuse, including fraud, following the prevention by HMRC of fraudulent claims worth £300 million. There will be no changes to the 36 months final period exemption available to disabled people or those in a care home. The Budget demonstrates the government’s commitment to building an economy that boosts the prosperity and real wages of people throughout the UK. The government has made substantial progress in improving the health of the public finances since 2010, which have now reached an historic turning point. At Autumn Budget 2017, the government set out a comprehensive package of new policies to raise housing supply by the end of this Parliament to its highest level since 1970, on track to reach 300,000 a year. Both the reduction in maximum stake and increased duty rate will come into effect in October 2019. The government’s objective is for a fair and sustainable tax system, one which reflects the changing ways people work and businesses operate, ensuring everyone continues to pay their fair share of tax and allowing people to keep more of what they earn. The OBR has revised down its forecast for the contribution of net trade to GDP growth in the near term, although it still expects net trade to make a positive contribution to GDP growth in 2018 of 0.2 percentage points. As part of this: the government will make up to £450 million available to enable levy paying employers to transfer up to 25% of their funds to pay for apprenticeship training in their supply chains, the government will provide up to £240 million, to halve the co-investment rate for apprenticeship training to 5% (23), the government will also provide up to £5 million to the Institute for Apprenticeships and National Apprenticeship Service in 2019-20, to identify gaps in the training provider market and increase the number of employer-designed apprenticeship standards available to employers. Q1 2018 was weaker than the OBR expected in its Spring Statement 2018 forecast, but Q2 2018 was in line with its expectations. Overall, by 2021 the government will be investing £9 billion a year more in infrastructure than in 2015. [footnote 48] The government will now extend the sales programme by a further year, increasing total proceeds to £15 billion. (47). Fiscal policy is the deliberate alteration of government spending or taxation to help achieve desirable macro-economic objectives by changing the level and composition of aggregate demand(AD). ↩, Details of the sources used for this calculation can be found in ‘Budget 2018 data sources’. The government will respond to the review in full in February 2019. This allows them to reclaim VAT on costs that UK based competitors are unable to reclaim. Further information on this measure is available in a supplementary document published alongside the Budget. [footnote 59] This includes the five new benefits being introduced in Scotland, which will be treated in accordance with the 2016 agreement between the Scottish government and the UK government on the Scottish Government’s Fiscal Framework. The government recognises the important role incineration currently plays in waste management in the UK, and expects this to continue. In addition, a further £440 million will be made available to the city regions shortlisted for competitive funding. Defence spending – The Budget provides an additional £1 billion for the Ministry of Defence across 2018-19 and 2019-20. The government is determined to fix the broken housing market. (64). The OBR judges that on current policy, welfare spending within scope is forecast to be within the welfare cap and margin in every year of the forecast. The economy of the future will be low carbon and green, and the UK is well positioned to lead this global transition. Issuing index-linked gilts has historically brought cost advantages due to strong demand, and has built the UK’s financial resilience through supporting the UK’s long average debt maturity and diversifying the investor base. (6). ↩, Further information is available at ‘Building the homes the country needs: Autumn Budget 2017 brief’. Hand rolling tobacco will increase by an additional one percentage point. It is important that the tax system works fairly and adapts to changes in the new economy. The government will also improve the customer experience for businesses accessing online government information and services. 2018 Blank Calendar . In accordance with the Charter for Budget Responsibility, the level of the welfare cap and pathway has been adjusted to reflect the fiscally neutral classification changes that occurred because of retaining funding for supported housing in the welfare system and the devolution of Carer’s Allowance to Scotland. (72), VAT Specified Supplies Order – As announced in July 2018, the government will legislate to prevent a version of VAT avoidance (known as ‘looping’) that involves UK insurers setting up associates in non-VAT territories and using these associates to supply their UK customers. Before the Great Recession, the majority view was one of a limited role of fiscal policy. This annex reproduces the OBR’s key forecasts for the economy and public finances. (9). This has created a stronger and fairer economy – helping people into work and cutting taxes for families and businesses, while also reducing the deficit and getting debt falling. (1). Some policy measures do not directly affect PSNB in the same way as conventional spending or taxation. This settlement will enable the NHS to plan for its future and support it to deliver the world-class care that people want and expect. At Spring Statement 2018, NS&I was set a Net Financing target of £6.0 billion for 2018‑19, within a range of £3.0 billion to £9.0 billion. Remote Gaming Duty – As announced in May 2018, in order to ensure funding for public services is maintained following the implementation of a £2 maximum stake on B2 machine games, the rate of Remote Gaming Duty will increase to 21%. The Royal Mint has a long-established tradition of producing coins in order to commemorate historic moments, including the 2012 Olympics, the UK’s accession to the European Economic Community, and the centenary of the First World War. In order to support the UK’s established and emerging businesses, the Budget takes further action to increase management capability and technology adoption, and improves firms’ access to finance. [footnote 24] The welfare cap, which was designed to improve Parliamentary accountability of welfare spending, was reset at Autumn Budget 2017, following the OBR’s judgement that the government successfully met the terms of the previous welfare cap set at Autumn Statement 2016. (40). What do we mean by "levelling up" the UK economy? The Budget announces further progress to implement this commitment, including: £291 million from the Housing Infrastructure Fund, funded by the NPIF, to unlock 18,000 new homes in East London through improvements to the Docklands Light Railway, the British Business Bank will deliver a new scheme providing guarantees to support up to £1 billion of lending to SME housebuilders, providing £653 million to 2021-22 for strategic partnerships with nine housing associations to deliver over 13,000 homes, £75 million from the Home Building Fund for St Modwen plc, to fund infrastructure to build over 13,000 new homes, a new five-year strategic business plan for Homes England, to be published on 30 October 2018. New discounted homes in up to 500 neighbourhoods – The government wants to see parishes and communities provide many more homes for local people to buy, at prices they can afford. Westminster Ceremonial Streetscape Project – The government will provide £5 million for the Westminster Ceremonial Streetscape Project to improve security and better manage traffic. Budgets for mental health services will grow as a share of the overall NHS budget over the next 5 years. The 2018 FPM replaces the 2016 FPM which had been in force since 17 October 2016. Over the past year, HM Treasury and the DMO have been undertaking work to explore the long-term inflation exposure in the debt portfolio. This occurs when traders collect VAT on their sales but go missing before passing that VAT on to HMRC. The government announces in this Budget that: the Housing Revenue Account cap that controls local authority borrowing for house building will be abolished from 29 October 2018 in England, enabling councils to increase house building to around 10,000 homes per year. Although net job creation last year was slightly slower than in 2016, it has remained considerably faster than what is needed, on average, to absorb new entrants into the labor force. The government is also acting to ensure businesses and consumers continue to benefit from new technologies, including by asking Jason Furman to lead a review of competition in the digital economy. [footnote 28] The Budget confirms the cash allocations announced in June. This builds on the £1 billion in long-term funding already committed to the broader network of Catapult centres located across the UK. Total nominal wage growth (including bonuses) and regular nominal wage growth (excluding bonuses) were 2.7% and 3.1% in the three months to August 2018 respectively. This change will apply to relevant transactions with an effective date on or after 29 October 2018, and will also be backdated to 22 November 2017 so that those eligible who have not previously claimed first-time buyers relief will be able to amend their return to claim a refund. Reducing administrative burdens on charities – From April 2019, the government will introduce a package of measures to reduce administrative burdens on charities. 1. [footnote 36]. These figures imply aggregate day-to-day spending outside the NHS will rise in line with inflation over this period. Departmental capital totals (CDEL), the money given to departments for investment, are set until 2020-21, as shown in Table 1.5. But the UK continues to run a budget deficit – suggesting that there is structural gap between government spending and tax revenues. Borrowing and debt are now forecast to be lower in every year than at Spring Statement, and headroom against the fiscal mandate has been maintained at £15.4 billion in the target year. ↩, In addition, the government has made provision for NHS pension costs until 2023-24, which will be adjusted in line with the confirmed Superannuation Contributions Adjusted for Past Experience (SCAPE) rate change. Brexit uncertainties have intensified considerably since the … The EU countries are: Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Republic of Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden and t… Downside risks have risen, as trade tensions have increased and financial conditions have tightened in emerging economies. 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